China Aircraft Leasing Airbus A320

IATA Publishes 20-Year Air Travel Outlook

Air China 'Smiling Faces' Boeing 777

IATA – the International Air Transport Association – has published its take on the next 20 years of air travel.
Ultimately, it foresees 2034’s annual passenger total nudging the 7.3 billion mark. That’s more than twice as many than at present and it’s based on average annual growth between now and then of 4.1 per cent per annum.
China, IATA thinks, will by that time have replaced the US as the epicentre of global air travel – with no less than 1.3 billion people using its airports by 2034. Meantime, within the US, passenger traffic will climb to an estimated 1.2 billion.
Air Travel 2034
With China leading the way and the US not so far behind, IATA believes that India, Indonesia and Brazil will make up the remainder of 2034’s air travel markets top five.
“It is an exciting prospect to think that in the next 20 years more than twice as many passengers as today will have the chance to fly”, comments IATA’s CEO, Tony Tyler. “Air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people. At present, aviation helps sustain 58 million jobs and $2.4 trillion in economic activity. In 20 years’ time, we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105 million jobs and $6tr in GDP.”
On the environmental side, also predicted is a 1.5 per cent improvement in fuel efficiency made each year, with an overall 50 per cent CO2 emissions drop achieved by 2050.
Future Commercial Aviation
Commercial aviation is now a century old, with the first fare-paying passenger service having been launched in Florida in 1914. Using very early flying boats, this service was named the St. Petersburg-Tampa Air Boat Line and, in business for a little over four months, was the springboard for all subsequent commercial air travel operations.
“In the year that marks the 100th anniversary of commercial air transport, it is fitting that the most comprehensive long-range forecast of future air passenger trends is released”, adds Tyler. “After a century of growth that has taken us from 1 passenger to 3.3 billion passengers this year, air transport is set to generate even more economic growth, employment, and cultural and educational opportunities. The first century of air travel has seen about 65 billion passengers take to the sky. The next 65 billion will fly in just the next 20 years.”


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